The Likelihood of Conflict between China and the Philippines

With the continuing disputes and small "skirmishes" between Filipino and Chinese Coast Guards - is there a risk of conflict breaking out?

In recent months, there have been increased tensions between China and the Philippines over territorial disputes in the South China Sea, specifically around Scarborough Shoal. Chinese Coast Guard vessels, which are typically large but with their offensive capabilities limited, have been patrolling the area. This restraint is intentional to avoid escalating conflicts. China has not deployed full-capability combat ships because it has a significant strength advantage and wants to prevent any incidents that could lead to war.

China's interest in maintaining control over these islands is tied to the vital trade routes in the region. Any conflict that disrupts trade could severely harm China's economy, as these routes connect East Asia to the rest of the world. Moreover, with the United States closely monitoring the situation, China is cautious not to provoke actions that could damage its relationship with a key trade partner.

On the other hand, the Philippines has been sending civilian vessels to these disputed islands, ostensibly for scientific research or to support fishermen. However, these actions also serve as a statement of sovereignty, which has greatly irritated China. The Chinese government views this as a threat because it recalls past incidents where the Philippines took control of islands abandoned by the ROC during a typhoon. China fears that allowing the Philippines to maintain a presence on these islands could lead to a more permanent claim.

To counter these actions, China has been using shows of force to drive away Filipino vessels. Despite these aggressive maneuvers, China has avoided actual military engagements to prevent retaliation. While there have been injuries, China does not intend to cause fatalities, relying instead on a strong display of force to deter the Philippines.

The latest incident around Scarborough Shoal, a long-disputed area seized by China in 2011, saw Filipino fishing boats, escorted by coast guard vessels, approaching the shoal. This move was a clear statement of national sovereignty. However, the situation de-escalated without confrontation as the Filipino vessels withdrew before reaching the shoal.

Assessment