Intelligence Toolbox: Predicting the Future through the Cone of Plausibility

Intelligence assessment should be predictive and forward looking. We get there through scenario generation, a great way to get there is through the Cone of Plausibility.

Hey,

In this article I’ll be giving you a guide on applying the Cone of Plausibility to generate scenarios - scenarios which are predictions of the future (if you’ve done it right).

I’m a simple guy, so I’ve simplified it so that anyone can do it.

Enjoy!

What is Scenario Generation?

Scenario generation is basically imagining different possible futures based on certain assumptions and key factors. It's like creating a range of "what if" scenarios to help decision-makers prepare for different potential outcomes. This is really useful for planning ahead and being ready for unexpected changes or opportunities. We can use lots of different tools to create these scenarios, like analyzing data, getting expert opinions, or running simulations.

In a nutshell, scenario generation helps people make better decisions by considering different possibilities and being prepared for whatever the future might bring.

There are numerous methods to doing scenario generation, but my personal favourite is the Cone of Plausibility. In this article, I’ll explain it in the most simplest terms I can - because I am a simple person and I used to hate the way some intel analysts used to overcomplicate it.

What is the Cone of Plausibility?