Human Factors and Non-Lethal Capability in the Grey Zone Environment

Delving into research concerning the grey zone operating environment.

Hi all,

I’ve been doing some reading around the grey zone operating environment as I like to keep tabs on what is happening in that space. Below I provide a brief read out on two articles that I highly recommend reading if you are operating in this space.

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ALCON Intelligence

Unpacking Grey Zone Operations

Grey zone operations are activities that are intentionally designed to achieve military objectives without crossing the threshold of conventional warfare and open conflict. They exist in the nebulous area between peace and war, hence the term "grey zone." These operations are often non-aggressive or non-attributable, making them challenging to counter without escalating into open conflict. The grey zone environment is where I spent the bulk of my time looking at when I was still in the military.

The Human Element in Grey Zone Operations

I came across a thought-provoking article by The Human Weapon System in Gray Zone Competition. The authors argue that despite advancements in technology and the development of sophisticated weaponry, the human element remains at the heart of a successful military strategy, particularly in grey zone operations.

The concept of the human weapon system, as discussed in the article, refers to the strategic and meaningful management of human resources in countering gray zone activities. The authors suggest that effective utilization of the human weapon system could prevent escalation into kinetic operations, which are traditional, physical warfare activities. The human weapon system essentially comes down to hearts and minds trumping guns and ammo in the grey zone, which is something we see often in the Pacific.

The Role of Intermediate Force Capabilities in Grey Zone Operations

Another piece I recommend is Intermediate Force Capabilities: Countering Adversaries across the Competition Continuum. This article outlines the importance of intermediate force capabilities as a crucial enabler for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operations in the grey zone.

Intermediate force capabilities refer to the use of non-lethal or less-than-lethal force in response to grey zone activities. Aware of the NATO thresholds for the employment of lethal force, adversaries intentionally operate in a manner that limits the alliance's options in crisis and conflict situations. The authors argue that the development and application of intermediate force capabilities can provide more options for response, allowing NATO to counter adversaries across the competition continuum without resorting to lethal force.

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12-Month Grey Zone Forecast