GREY ZONE SITUATION REPORT - 13 Jan 22.
Hey team,
It’s great to be back on the platform and writing in 2023. I’ve been itching to get across developments over the past several weeks as I’ve been MIA on our Christmas break here in New Zealand.
In terms of key themes I’m looking to track over the next month or so, I’ll be focused on:
Japan’s rise in the Indo-Pacific, especially ties to the US and Australia, as well as any moves further into the South West Pacific.
I feel like the Solomon Islands have been quiet for a while, so it’s a bit of a gap I want to fill, and
The Fijian elections. The Rabuka Government is now in power and I’m interested in their dynamics and attitudes towards traditional partners vs China.
Really keen to discuss some of these topics with other SMEs, via the ALCON Podcast that I’ll be rebooting and keeping it strictly intelligence/geopolitics-related. Keep an eye out!
In this SITREP, some key headlines:
Japan’s PM to Discuss Russian and Chinese Threat with Canadian Counterpart
US and Japan Strengthen Military Alliance Through Upgraded Marine Unit
United States and Japan Strengthen Space Security Alliance with New Agreement
Australia Finalising Security Agreement with Papua New Guinea
Compartmented Information: Captured Russian documents detailing some pretty in-depth data regarding their anti-air systems
…Plus more!
Enjoy,
Cole // ALCON.S2
POLITICAL
Papua New Guinea PM Refuses to Give Details on Relationship with China
During a joint press conference with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, James Marape, the Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, emphasized his position of not discussing the country's relationship with China. He stated that the relationship between PNG and China is separate from the relationship between PNG and Australia, and that the focus of their discussions was solely on the latter. He also mentioned that the relationship between PNG and Australia is special and unique, and that other countries understand this.
Analyst Comment. Papua New Guinea and China have a formal diplomatic relationship that began in 1976. Over the years, the two countries have developed a strong economic bond, with China being one of Papua New Guinea's most significant trading partners and investors. China has financed many infrastructure projects in Papua New Guinea, including roads, ports and airports. Additionally, it has provided technical assistance and aid in agriculture, health and education sectors. China is also seeking to expand its political and strategic presence in the Pacific region and Papua New Guinea is viewed as a key partner in this endeavor.
Japan’s PM to Discuss Russian and Chinese Threat with Canadian Counterpart
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan is on a tour of G7 countries, including Canada, to discuss global security challenges, specifically, China's aggression in the Indo-Pacific region and the war in Ukraine. He plans to use the opportunity to strengthen trade and energy ties with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Kishida will host the annual G7 summit in May in Hiroshima and plans to maintain the G7's commitment to helping Ukraine and focus on security in the Indo-Pacific region under threat from China. They will also discuss Japanese investments in processing critical minerals for electric vehicles and hydrogen development and Canadian liquefied natural gas facilities on the West Coast. Both countries also want to cooperate on artificial intelligence.
Analyst Comment. Japan has recently undergone a significant military expansion and has vowed to spend $350 billion, including on long-range missiles that could hit mainland China. Kishida aims to increase security ties between Japan's Self-Defense Forces and G7 nations through military cooperation, and he and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will agree to joint military exercises.
MILITARY
US and Japan Strengthen Military Alliance Through Upgraded Marine Unit
The United States and Japan announced on Wednesday that they are upgrading the US military's force posture in Japan in order to strengthen their military relationship and deter China. The 12th Marine Regiment, an artillery regiment, will be redesigned as the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment, which will be more lethal, agile, and capable. The new unit will be based on Okinawa and will be able to quickly respond to contingencies and defend Japan. This move is part of a series of initiatives that are meant to underscore a rapid acceleration of security and intelligence ties between the two countries. The announcement comes ahead of President Joe Biden's meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House.
United States and Japan Strengthen Space Security Alliance with New Agreement
The United States and Japan have decided to expand their security alliance to include space, as concern about China's expanding economic and military influence in the area increases. Both countries have stated that any attack in space would activate their security treaty. This move comes as China is increasing its satellite presence and military presence in space. This announcement follows the signing of a Reciprocal Access Agreement between UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Kishida, which is the most significant defense pact between the two countries since 1902.
Analyst Comment. We’re likely to see Japan become more and more involved in the Pacific in the next several years, with military operations likely increasing in the South China Sea. In a conflict, it’s likely Japan will be a major contributing ally for the United States.
China Sending “Signal” to Indonesia by Deploying Largest Coastguard Vessels
Indonesia's maritime security agency, Bakamla, has deployed two teams to the Natuna Sea in response to the presence of a Chinese coast guard vessel in the area. The Tuna field, which is located in the South China Sea, is within Indonesia's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) but also inside the "nine-dash line" that China uses to claim historical rights over around 90% of the disputed South China Sea. In September, a Chinese coast guard vessel was also detected in the Natuna waters and allegedly intimidated Indonesian fishermen. However, Jakarta did not file a diplomatic protest to Beijing, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying that "foreign vessels are allowed to pass" on a coastal country's EEZ.
Australia Finalising Security Agreement with Papua New Guinea
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced that Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) will be signing a treaty of friendship and security, during a historic address to the PNG Parliament, the first such address by a foreign leader since the nation gained independence in 1975. He stated that the treaty will work to address PNG's needs, including strengthening the justice system and resolving law-and-order challenges. PNG Prime Minister James Marape welcomed Albanese and said that the two leaders would meet later in the day to fine-tune their relationship, including "support for the law and justice sector, including police, military exchanges." He also highlighted the importance of PNG's economic strength for the safety of the Indo-Pacific region.
ECONOMIC
Dell to Stop Production of Chips in China by 2024
Dell Technologies Inc plans to stop using China-made chips by 2024 and has told suppliers to reduce the amount of other made-in-China components in its products amid concerns over U.S.-Beijing tensions, Nikkei reported on Thursday.
The computer maker told suppliers late last year that it aims to meaningfully lower the amount of China-made chips it uses, including those produced at facilities owned by non-Chinese chipmakers, the report added, citing three people with direct knowledge of the move.
SOCIETY
NSTR
INFORMATION
ViceSociety Ransomware Claims Responsibility for Attack on Australian Fire Service
Fire Rescue Victoria (FRV), a fire and rescue service in the Australian state of Victoria, has disclosed a data breach caused by a December 2022 cyberattack that is now claimed by the Vice Society ransomware gang. The cyberattack occurred on December 15, 2022 and affected a number of the agency's internal servers, including its email system. The hackers have also stolen data from FRV's computers, including information about current and former employees, contractors, secondees, and job applicants. The agency has notified the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner and is warning all employees and previous job applicants to be vigilant against targeted phishing emails or SMS texts. They also recommend resetting passwords and enabling multi-factor authentication to protect accounts further.
ALCON Opinion: The Impacts of Cyber Threats to Pacific Nations
In today's world, the internet and technology have become an integral part of our daily lives. We rely on it for communication, business, and entertainment. However, with the increasing dependence on technology comes an increased risk of cyber threats. Pacific nations are no exception to this growing problem. In fact, they are particularly vulnerable to cyber attacks due to their lack of resources and capacity to protect against them.
One of the most significant impacts of cyber threats to Pacific nations is on their national security. Cyber attacks can compromise sensitive information and disrupt critical infrastructure, such as power grids and financial systems. This can lead to significant economic and political instability. For instance, a cyber attack on a Pacific nation's financial system can cripple the economy and undermine the government's ability to function. Additionally, cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, such as power grids, can result in widespread blackouts and other disruptions, putting citizens' safety at risk.
Another impact of cyber threats to Pacific nations is on their sovereignty. Pacific nations, with their small and fragile economies, are often at the mercy of outside forces. Cyber attacks, particularly those originating from foreign actors, can erode their sovereignty and independence. For example, a cyber attack on a Pacific nation's government website can disrupt its ability to govern and communicate with its citizens, making it vulnerable to outside influence.
Furthermore, Cyber threats also impact Pacific nations in terms of their economic and social development. Cyber attacks can disrupt businesses and industries, resulting in financial losses and job losses. This can lead to a decrease in economic growth and an increase in poverty. Additionally, cyber attacks can also disrupt access to essential services such as healthcare and education. This can have a detrimental effect on the social development of a country.
To combat these threats, Pacific nations need to take proactive measures to protect themselves. This includes investing in cyber security infrastructure, raising awareness among citizens and businesses, and increasing collaboration with other countries and international organizations. Additionally, Pacific nations need to develop their own cyber security experts and professionals, to better protect against cyber threats.
In conclusion, cyber threats pose a significant challenge to Pacific nations. They can impact national security, sovereignty, and economic and social development. However, with the right measures in place, Pacific nations can protect themselves from these threats and continue to thrive in the digital age.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Indonesia Advances Offshore Gas Project Worth $3 Billion as a Challenge to China
Last week, Indonesia's government approved an offshore gas project worth over $3 billion in the South China Sea. The Tuna block lies in the waters between Indonesia and Vietnam and is expected to see peak production of 115 million cubic feet daily by 2027, which will be exported to Vietnam. This move is a direct challenge to China's territorial claims in the area, as it is known to flex its military muscle in the South China Sea whenever another country in the basin dares to establish a presence for oil and gas production purposes.
The South China Sea is seen as a vast untapped oil and gas reservoir. The U.S. Geological Survey in the 1990s estimated these reserves at some 28 billion barrels of crude, but a 2019 report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration put these at 11 billion barrels, both proven and probable. Although most of the discovered oil and gas is in undisputed waters, the Tuna block, which lies near the Natuna Islands, is not the case. China has a claim to part of the waters around the islands and there have already been clashes between Indonesia and China in this area.
FROM THE OUTSTATIONS
Global Analysis from the Online Intelligence Community.
On Chinese Anti-Air by Vermillion China
The PLA takes the threat of US airpower very seriously. This means that in a future fight between US and PRC forces, the battlefield will hold aircraft, drones, and missiles from both sides at high risk. In the past twenty years of conflict, US forces have become accustomed to enjoying air dominance. This has allowed US ground forces to request air strikes at will or evacuate wounded within the golden hour proven to save lives. Due to equipment like MANPADS, neither of these critical capabilities can be counted on in a conventional war with the PRC.
As PRC defense firms continue to produce MANPADS en masse, we will see more FN-16s and QW variants in the hands of violent extremist groups and state actors such as Cambodia, Iran, and North Korea. We will also likely see continued advances in Chinese MANPADS technology as the Russians transfer captured US technology from the Ukraine battlefield to the PRC.
Turkey Convicts Doctor on Terror Propaganda Charges by HM Intelligence
The Istanbul court handed 63-year-old Fincanci a sentence of two years and eight months, but released her from jail as she challenges the verdict. Fincanci was arrested in October after she urged an investigation into the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Turkish army against Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq. The so what to me is that Erdoğan does not like public descent in any form, particularly when it comes to his military operations against the Kurds, it is likely that these charges were an attempt and sending a message to all journalists and reporters in Turkey that the state will not tolerate this type of messaging. It is possible that Fincanci will be able to reduce her sentence if she agrees to stop being vocal about Turkeys' conflict on the southern boarder, but unlikely if she does not.
China's J-10C Vigorous Dragon Fighter Jet Equipped with New K/JDC03A FLIR/Laser Designation Pod by Sino Talk
On January 6th, an image showing a J-10C Vigorous Dragon carrying a K/JDC03A FLIR/laser designation pod while taxiing at Nanning People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Base. The targeting pod is mounted on the right side of the under the aircraft’s engine intake in image one. However, the targeting pod can also be mounted on the left side of the underside of the engine intake as seen in image two.
The K/JDC03A’s ability to be mounted on either side of the J-10’s engine’s intake is comparable to how the K/JDC01 targeting pod – likely predecessor to the K/JDC03A – can also be mounted on J-10s
Previously, the J-10 family (J-10A/AH/B/C) used the K/JDC01 to laser designate and identify targets for strikes using precision munitions such as LS500J 500kg Laser Guided Bombs (LGBs).
The K/JDC03A FLIR/laser designation pod first appeared at the 2019 Airshow China 2021, mounted on the left underside of the JH-7A2 Flying Leopard, an upgraded version of the JH-7A.
Analysis: The image is the first time a J-10C with a K/JDC03A mounted on the aircraft in an operating environment, which likely means the pod reached Initial Operating Capability (IOC) with the PLAAF. However, it is currently unknown whether the targeting pod reached IOC with the People’s Liberation Army Naval Air Force since it can be mounted on its J-10AH/C and JH-7As. However, the K/JDC03A likely has increased capabilities such as longer maximum laser designation distance and enhanced FLIR cameras compared to the K/JDC01.
COMPARTMENTED INFORMATION
Compartmented Information is exclusively sourced OSINT for those with a need-to-know. You will not find the following reporting anywhere else. Subscribe for access. In this weeks reporting:
Captured Battlefield Documents: Russian Military Surface-to-Air Missile Platform Doctrine and Tech Data - Translated to English. Covering the following:
9M38M1 Anti-Air Rocket
9A310M1 Self Propelled SAM
9C470M1 Combat Control Point
AA System 9K37M1 “BUK”