GREY ZONE SITUATION REPORT
GREY ZONE SITUATION REPORT
Keeping you Informed and Lifting the Fog of War - 17 December 22.
Evening,
This is another special issue of The Grey Zone SITREP. In this issue, I’ve introduced a ‘Compartmented Information’ section towards the bottom of the SITREP. This section consists of exclusively sourced OSINT for those with a need-to-know. You will likely not find this reporting anywhere else online. Because of possible sensitivities - this is a closed access section available only to premium subscribers. This issue has something that might interest Ukraine War watchers..
The remainder of the SITREP stays completely free. In this SITREP, you’ll find:
United States Applauds Japan’s National Security Shift as Good for the Indo-Pacific
Possible Voting Irregularities in Fijian 2022 Election
Chinese Ambassador Accuses the West of Creating Indo-Pacific Concept to Contain China
Chinese Carrier Group Enters West Pacific for Large Scale Military Drills
Taiwan’s Military Shrinks as China Fears Grow
Threat From Northern Borders Rising, Indian Ex-Army Chief
….. and much more.
Enjoy and have a good weekend.
Cole // ALCON.S2
POLITICS
United States Applauds Japan’s National Security Shift as Good for the Indo-Pacific
Top US officials have praised Japan's new defence plans, which represent the nation's greatest military modernisation in decades and feature tougher wording towards China. These officials include those from the State Department, the Pentagon, and the national security adviser.
“Japan’s new documents reshape the ability of our alliance to promote peace and protect the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Friday, echoing the others.
Earlier in the day, Japan’s cabinet approved new defence and national security strategy documents as well as a significant defence spending hike, raising its security budget to 2 per cent of gross domestic product by 2027, effectively doubling the informal cap of 1 per cent of GDP in place since 1976.
Possible Voting Irregularities in Fijian 2022 Election
Sitiveni Rabuka, the head of Fiji's opposition, called for calm as the country's general election vote count continued while alleging abnormalities in the polling statistics.
Four hours after votes closed, preliminary results showed the incumbent prime minister Frank Bainimarama's FijiFirst party in the mid-20s and the opposition People's Alliance party teetering in the mid to low 40s. The findings were pulled offline for a period of time, and when they were put back online, they were changed.
The reason for Rabuka's complaint, according to the elections supervisor, was a bug in the software used to show the most recent vote results. The fresh statistics, according to Rabuka, didn't line up with the party's raw data from the polling places.
Chinese Ambassador Accuses the West of Creating Indo-Pacific Concept to Contain China
According to a top Chinese official, the Asia-Pacific region is insufficient to restrict China, so the US came up with the "Indo-Pacific" idea to include India and its other allies.
The western and central Pacific Ocean, including the South China Sea, and the Indian Ocean make up the biogeographic area known as the Indo-Pacific.
In light of China's expanding military manoeuvres in the resource-rich area, the US, India, and a number of other world powers have been discussing the necessity to guarantee a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.
“The Indo-Pacific concept is created by the US to contain China. In fact, there is no such concept as ‘Indo-Pacific’ in geopolitics,” China’s Ambassador to France, Lu Shaye said during a media interaction on December 7.
“In the past, we used to talk about the Pacific or the Asia-Pacific region, never about the ‘Indo-Pacific'”, Lu, known as China’s “wolf warrior” diplomat, was quoted by the Chinese Embassy website in France.
MILITARY AND SECURITY
Chinese Carrier Group Enters West Pacific for Large Scale Military Drills
The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy's aircraft carrier Liaoning reportedly crossed the Miyako Strait and entered the West Pacific on Friday for routine exercises, the same day that Japan deviated from its defense-only postwar principle and announced plans to arm itself with first attack-capable missiles, allowing it to strike China. The aircraft carrier was escorted by a record number of Type 055 10,000 ton-class large destroyers.
The PLA flotilla, the most potent Liaoning aircraft carrier group to date, is anticipated to hold a number of realistic combat-oriented drills outside the first island chain, improving its capacity to protect territorial integrity, sovereignty, and development interests.
Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force spotted a PLA Navy flotilla consisting of the aircraft carrier Liaoning, the Type 055 large destroyers Anshan and Wuxi, the Type 052D destroyer Chengdu, the Type 054A frigate Zaozhuang and the Type 901 comprehensive replenishment ship Hulunhu sailing from the East China Sea through the Miyako Strait into the West Pacific from Thursday to Friday, Japan's Ministry of Defense Joint Staff said in a press release on Friday.
Taiwan’s Military Shrinks as China Fears Grow
Taiwan has identified a gap in its military strategies that is progressively growing larger. And it's not a problem that can be solved by increasing the budget or purchasing more guns.
The 23.5 million-strong island democracy is struggling to find enough young men to fulfill positions available in the military, and the Interior Ministry of the country has stated that the consistently low birth rate may be partly to blame.
According to the ministry, Taiwan's population began to decline in 2020. The ministry had earlier this year issued a warning that the military intake in 2022 would be the lowest in a decade and that a continuous decline in the youth population would provide a "major difficulty" for the future.
Threat From Northern Borders Rising, Indian Ex-Army Chief
Former chief of Indian Army General MM Naravane (retired), following the recent clash in Arunachal Pradesh, has hit out at the Chinese Army for descending to the level of “prehistoric times” by using “clubs and barbed wires” in the scuffle and said that the Indian Army in warfare would rather open fire than resort to such ridiculous tactics.
The former Army chief also said that based on assessments, the Indian Army felt that threat from India’s northern borders is increasing but with situational analysis and inputs the Indian Army keeps evaluating threats and takes remedial measures.
In a podcast with Smita Prakash, Editor-in-Chief of ANI, Gen Naravane pointed out how the Chinese troops have been indulging in mobbing incidents but that India as a country showed to the world that it is possible to take on the “neighbourhood bullying”.
“That is how an army fights by using the weapons at your disposal and not getting into fisticuffs. Are we hooligans or mafia? We are professional. Is that the level PLA has gone down to? Hooliganism and streetfighting? Or they are a professional 21st-century army? On one side they try to show their technological prowess, on the other side they are coming with barbed wire clubs. It is ridiculous,” the former Army Chief said.
Chinese Military Moves to Take Precautions from COVID-19 Surge
As Covid-19 infections spread across China, the military has requested specific steps to safeguard troops' health and minimise training setbacks.
The nation was in a new scenario that required "perfect coordination" between pandemic measures and making sure its soldiers were combat-ready, according to an editorial published on Friday by the state-run PLA Daily.
Extreme measures should be avoided and there shouldn't be a "one-size-fits-all" strategy for limiting the outbreaks, it warned. The comments also urged making the necessary preparations to guarantee that the troops got daily requirements and care throughout their isolation.
Chinese ‘Overseas’ Police Station in New Zealand Linked to New Zealand Businessman
An investigation has found connections between a businessman who has spoken with prominent Kiwi politicians and a covert Chinese police centre that is purportedly functioning in New Zealand.
The Government is presently conducting a multi-agency investigation into allegations regarding the functioning of the centre that were first made public in a report by an international NGO earlier this month.
From Chinese-language media and websites, the investigation further details the claimed unofficial police presence, including where it was allegedly located at one time.
Among 29 addresses on the list, spanning multiple continents, is a location on Great South Road in the Auckland suburb of Epsom - within a five-minute drive of both the city’s Chinese consulate and the University of Auckland’s Epsom campus. It is unclear whether the centre is still operating from that address.
The Auckland site is linked to Chinese businessman Zhou Jiexiang, who holds a number of political roles in the country and appears to be tied to the Chinese Communist Party’s controversial United Front operations.
ECONOMIC
China Vows to Stabilise Economy
China's leadership is supporting that determination with a strong message of support for the country's suffering private sector in an effort to demonstrate that it is making every effort to turn the economy around.
According to a statement from the two-day conference that ended on Friday, policymakers renewed commitments at the annual, precedent-setting central economic work conference, highlighting how they will prioritise restoring and growing domestic consumption in the coming year, viewing this as a crucial task in stabilising the overall economy.
In an effort to help alleviate lingering worries about policy uncertainties and unpredictability, leadership emphasised the significance of equal treatment for the private sector, which has recently been hit hard by stringent coronavirus controls and regulatory crackdowns. Leadership also pledged to address investors' concerns from other countries.
United States puts 36 Chinese Companies on Trade Blacklist
36 Chinese high-tech firms, including producers of aviation equipment, chemicals, and computer chips, have been added on a blacklist for export controls by the U.S. Department of Commerce due to concerns about national security, U.S. interests, and human rights.
When a U.S. corporation tries to do business with one of the companies on the trade "Entity List," export permits are likely to be rejected. In some circumstances, businesses with international operations must also adhere to the rules in order to avoid technology from being used for purposes that are prohibited by export restrictions.
New Zealand Prime Minister Aims to Lead Trade Mission to China
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern stated on Friday that she intended to lead a trade trip to China if border settings were altered to permit travel to its largest trading partner.
In conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping last month outside of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference in Bangkok, which was their first face-to-face encounter since 2018, Ardern said that she had communicated her desire to visit.
"I do hope to return to China in person when the settings allow, and I discussed with the President our ambition of taking a trade mission into China early next year – a plan that was welcomed by the President," Ardern told a meeting of the New Zealand-China Council in Auckland.
SOCIAL
NSTR
INFORMATION
Vanuatu Recovers from Cyber Attack
As Vanuatu continues to recover from a major cyber-attack, other Pacific countries are coming to terms with their own online vulnerabilities. Vanuatu reported an attack on its government server in early November, that initially knocked off emails, phone lines and emergency services.
A new initiative led by researchers from Monash University in Australia aims to futureproof IT systems in the Pacific in the face of rising cyber attacks. They plan to work with several governments in the Pacific, including Samoa, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea.
Japan, Australia to Bolster Cyber Defences
Australia's home affairs and cybersecurity minister Clare O'Neill has given the nation a goal of becoming the world's most cyber secure nation by 2030.
"I believe that is possible. But we need a reset, and a pathway to get there," the minister said in a speech late last week, in which she described the 2030 goal as the hoped-for outcome of a new cyber security strategy the government will develop.
The minister outlined four goals for that strategy:
Bring the whole nation into the fight to protect our citizens and our economy;
Strengthen critical infrastructure and government networks;
Build sovereign cyber security capabilities, so we can stand on our own two feet;
Strengthen our international engagement so Australia can be a global cyber leader, and work in partnership with our Pacific neighbors to lift cyber security across our region.
INFRASTRUCTURE
NSTR
FROM THE OUTSTATIONS
Global Analysis from the Online Intelligence Community.
EU Imposes New Sanctions Against Russia at their End-of-Year Summit - HM_Intelligence
Despite disagreement over easing the export of Russian agricultural products and fertilizers through European ports, the EU has agreed on their ninth round of sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The full details of these sanctions have not been released but they are expected to include travel bans and asset freezes on an additional 200 Russian officials and military officers. The bloc will also look to ban the delivery of drone engines to Russia and Iran, due to their dual use in military weapons.
The agreement did not come with some controversy though, as part of the announcement the EU stated they will introduce a minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who was not a supporter of this proposal accused the EU of blackmail by linking the tax plan to Ukranian aid. "Combining aid for Ukraine with such distant topics which have nothing to do with aid like corporate tax is unnecessary, it is a mistake and an attempt at blackmail," Morawiecki said.
ASSESSMENT: The continued development of sanctions are unlikely to have an immediate effect on Russia; however, they will continue to grow dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine with the possibility that it could lead to the removal of Putin over the medium to long term.
3 Killed, 14 Injured Following Suicide Bombing in The North Waziristan Region, Pakistan - Expeditionary Intelligence, Substack
Local media sources and eyewitnesses in Pakistan confirmed today that 3 individuals were killed, and 14 others were injured following a suicide bombing on a security convoy in the northern Waziristan region bordering Afghanistan. The incident occurred when the convoy was traveling through Miranshah when an individual equipped with a suicide vest rushed the convoy and detonated the explosives dealing significant damage to the military convoy as well as to local businesses and residences. Following the attack, authorities blocked off the area and transferred the injured victims to the nearest medical facility for treatment noting many of the victims were schoolchildren and local residents. Security officials noted that this was likely a planned operation targeting security personnel committed by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as the group has recently terminated its ceasefire agreement with the federal government of Pakistan adding that they would resume attacks across the nation.
Formed in 2007, the TTP is an umbrella organization that is made up of multiple Taliban factions operating within Pakistan. While closely associated with and supporter of the Taliban in Afghanistan the TTP’s mission focuses solely on Pakistan and is based along the Afghanistan border in Pakistan’s Waziristan region. TTP’s core mission is focused on three goals; enforce Shariah law in Pakistan, conduct defensive Jihad against Pakistani security forces, and ultimately overthrow the Pakistani federal government and establish the nation as an Islamic caliphate. Since 2014 weak leadership began to split the group into factions, and increased security campaigns began to weaken the group, however, increased support from the Taliban in Afghanistan following the US withdrawal has helped the group stabilize and reunite.
Quick Balkans Update (Kosovo - Serbia) - S2_Fwd
-Kosovo formally applied for EU membership however there likely won't be any membership until Serbia and Kosovo normalize their relationship. Five members of the EU–Greece, Spain, Romania, Slovakia and Cyprus – do not recognise Kosovo as an independent country.
-Bosnia and Herzegovina received candidate status on their EU membership. The pro-Russian ethnic Serb leader Milorad Dodik will almost certainly continue to push back again any membership. Of note, Turkey, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, Moldova, and Ukraine all have candidate status.
-The Night Wolves, a Russian motorcycle club that was founded around the Moscow area in 1989, made an appearance at the Kosovo-Serbia border. In December 2014, the US announced sanctions against the Night Wolves due to their involvement in attacks on a gas distribution station in Strikolkove and the Ukrainian naval headquarters in Sevastopol, and recruitment of fighters for the war in Donbas. The club has close ties to Vladimir Putin and a generally Russian nationalist sentiment. Putin has described them as his "friends" and appeared at their rallies, riding a Harley-Davidson trike. Yale University historian Timothy Snyder believes it serves "as a paramilitary and propaganda arm of the Putin regime.
COMPARTMENTED INFORMATION
Compartmented Information is exclusively sourced OSINT for those with a need-to-know. You will not find the following information anywhere else. Subscribe for access. In this weeks reporting: