DOWNREP #012: Xi Jinping Preparing for War, PLA and Russian Army to Increase Joint Cooperation

ICOD: 30 MAR 23

A Down Report (DOWNREP) is a daily report that keeps your informed on the current situation in the strategic environment. These are exclusive to those who have a need-to-know.

BLUF: The recent comments by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, coupled with Beijing's increase in defense budget and military readiness laws, suggest that China is preparing for a potential conflict with Taiwan. President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the United States, including a meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, is likely to be viewed as a provocative act by China, and there is a risk that China may take some action to show its displeasure, such as military drills or interference in Taiwan's diplomatic relations. The situation is likely to remain tense in the short term, and the U.S.'s support for Taiwan is expected to further inflame tensions with China.

The partnership between China and Russia in military and strategic affairs is likely to continue to strengthen over the next three months, with joint sea and air cruises and training exercises taking place. However, this cooperation may be viewed with suspicion by the United States and other Western countries, possibly increasing the risk to an unintended conflict. There may also be concerns about China's and Russia's actions in other parts of the world, such as cyber-attacks and espionage.

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