China in the Crossfire: Assessing Beijing's Response to the Gaza Conflict
The international focus is on Israel versus Hamas, framing it as a good versus bad narrative. My focus is on Beijing's interests in this dynamic and here's my assessment on their future moves.
Date: 08 NOV 23
Classification: RESTRICTED ALCON
Reference: Available on Request
Key Judgments:
It is unlikely that China will engage militarily in the Israel-Gaza conflict. China has a historical pattern of favoring diplomatic solutions over military ones in areas where it does not have immediate territorial or strategic interests.
China's strategy is to ensure regional stability and protect its economic interests in the Middle East through non-military means. Direct military intervention does not align with these objectives.
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