ALCON INTSUM #21: The Destabilisation of Papua New Guinea?

Understand your Adversary

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

• Escalating tribal violence in Papua New Guinea threatens stability.

• Economic stagnation and strong tribal loyalties fuel ongoing conflict.

• Increased risk of instability over the next 12 months with potential international implications.

• China warns against interference in Taiwan, maintaining strong ties with Russia.

• NATO anticipates possible Russian aggression, emphasizing the need for readiness.

• Ukraine defends against Russian advances; international support and treaty violations noted.

• Middle East: Iran's regional influence marked, with continued conflicts in Yemen and Gaza.

INDO PACIFIC

Papua New Guinea has witnessed a significant escalation in tribal violence in Enga Province, with a reported massacre raising concerns over the stability of this Pacific nation. Initial reports suggested a death toll in the 50s; however, Acting Superintendent George Kakas later confirmed 26 deaths, a figure that remains subject to further verification. This incident marks a disturbing increase in hostilities in the region, potentially the most substantial in recent history.

Violence in Papua New Guinea, particularly in the highlands, is often driven by the Wantok system, which fosters strong tribal affiliations and loyalties. This recent attack is part of a continuing cycle of violence involving tribes that were also responsible for over 60 fatalities last year. The victims were ambushed while reportedly preparing to assault a rival tribe, leading to widespread casualties across the area. This situation underscores the deep-seated tribal conflicts that persist in PNG.

The lack of economic diversification in Papua New Guinea has contributed to its instability. Despite recognizing the potential of agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and tourism for economic development and job creation, little progress has been made towards significant structural reforms. This economic stagnation exacerbates social tensions and contributes to the country's overall volatility.

In response to the massacre, police and defense forces have been deployed to Enga Province in an attempt to stabilize the situation, despite the risks involved. Police Commissioner David Manning has urged provincial and local leaders to engage with their communities to de-escalate tensions. The widespread availability of weapons, sourced from across the Indonesian border and from government armories, fuels the violence. The combination of these arms, enduring tribal disputes, and the challenges posed by a weak and corrupt security apparatus creates a fertile ground for further conflict.

12 Month Forecast