ALCON Intelligence Summary 23 Jan 2024

Understand your adversary.

Hey team,

No INTSUM yesterday as it was a public holiday here in New Zealand - and yes, I am in fact human and I too need a break now and then!

Cheers,

ALCON

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RR ALCON Intelligence Summary 23 JAN 2024

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 23 2200 L JAN 24

ICOD: 23 1200L JAN 24

CONTROLS: COMPARTMENT ALCON

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BLUF:

Taiwan has heightened its defense capabilities in response to increased Chinese surveillance, including spy balloons and military presence near its airspace, while China continues to enhance its military strategy. In the Middle East, the U.S. is actively countering Houthi forces in Yemen through "Operation Poseidon Archer." In the Gaza Strip, clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militias are intensifying, with Hamas reportedly rebuilding its presence in northern Gaza. In Eastern Ukraine, Russia is focusing on capturing strategic areas in Luhansk and Donetsk, marked by escalated military engagements and significant regional impacts.

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INDO PACIFIC

China Taiwan Tensions

(U) Taiwan's Ministry of Defense has reported the detection of a significant number of Chinese spy balloons, with six more observed flying over the Taiwan Strait on January 21. Among these, one balloon notably crossed over the island, signaling an escalation in aerial surveillance activities by China. This development aligns with the ongoing tensions between Taiwan and China.

(U) In addition to the spy balloons, Taiwan's military has also identified four Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and four PLA Navy (PLAN) vessels in the vicinity of Taiwan. This military presence highlights the continuing pressure and surveillance tactics employed by China in the region.

(U) In response to these activities, particularly the overflight of a Chinese spy balloon over Pingtung County, Taiwan has escalated its defensive posture. The Taiwanese armed forces have deployed the Sky Bow III anti-aircraft missile systems in Kenting City, located in Pingtung County. The deployment of these advanced missile systems represents a clear move to strengthen Taiwan's air defense capabilities in the face of increased aerial surveillance and potential threats from China.

(U) Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission of China, has signed an order to promulgate revised military legislation provisions. The 85-article document, effective from March 1, aligns with Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism and military strengthening. It aims to improve the quality of military law, manage the armed forces in accordance with the law, and enhance overall military management.

(U) The PLA Air Force has deployed new Wuzhen-10 reconnaissance and attack drones at Foshan Airfield in Guangdong Province. These drones are tasked with monitoring the air situation over the South China Sea, as evidenced by satellite images from January 2024 showing the deployment of these UAVs.

(U) Taiwan's navy plans to establish a missile command by year-end, aiming to control the Haifeng Naval Brigade and new missile units equipped with Hsiung Feng II and III missiles, as well as American Harpoon coastal defense systems. The command, to be located in Huwei, Yunlin County, is seen as a strategic move to counter potential PLA amphibious operations against the island.

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MIDDLE EAST

Operation Poseidon Archer

(U) The United States has initiated a significant and structured military operation in Yemen, designated "Operation Poseidon Archer," as confirmed by two US officials. This operation represents a more formalized and potentially enduring approach to the US military's involvement in Yemen. The primary focus of Operation Poseidon Archer is to counteract the Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran and have been targeting commercial vessels in strategic maritime regions like the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Key aspects of Operation Poseidon Archer include:

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