ALCON Intelligence Summary 21 DEC 23

China - Filipino tensions continue to simmer, while Russia and China strategic relationship strengthens.

RR ALCON Intelligence Summary 21 DEC 23

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 2138L 20 DEC 23

ICOD: 2000L

CONTROLS: COMPARTMENT ALCON

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BLUF: [BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT SUMMARY]

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China Phillipines Tension Update

(U) In a phone call, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo discussed the strained China-Philippines relationship. Wang emphasized the importance of careful navigation by the Philippines in current maritime disputes, urging a return to dialogue and warning against siding with external forces that could escalate tensions. He stressed China's commitment to resolving issues through consultation and maintaining maritime stability, but also indicated a readiness to protect China's rights decisively if necessary.

(U) Manalo highlighted the Philippine stance on the Second Thomas Shoal issue, expressing a desire for a mutually acceptable resolution to ease tensions and avoid conflict. He affirmed the Philippines' willingness to engage in dialogue and utilize existing communication mechanisms to address maritime concerns.

(U) Both parties agreed to expedite a bilateral consultative meeting on the South China Sea to facilitate dialogue and improve conditions for resolving disputes.

Ukraine Frontline Situation Update as at 0800 21 December 2023

1. (U) Kherson-Crimea Direction (Krynki)

   • Ongoing tactical counterfighting.

   • Russian forces using long-range weapons against Ukrainian marines in Krynki.

   • Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) maintain control on the left bank of the Dnieper. (Fig. 1)

2. (U) Zaporozhye Direction (Rabotino, Novoprokopovka)

   • Russian Armed Forces attack Ukrainian positions in Rabotino from the west and Novoprokopovka.

   • Offensive actions in the eastern part of the AFU bridgehead from Novofyodorovka.

   • Ukrainian troops retain their positions. (Fig. 2)

3. (U) Donetsk Front (Various Locations)

   • Russian advancement to Novomikhaylovka from the southeast; pressure continues in the village.

   • Russian assaults near Pobeda, Nevelskoye, Pervomayskoye, Severnoye, and Stepovoye, and towards Ocheretino.

   • No significant change in the frontline. (Fig. 3)

4. (U) Bakhmut Direction (Andreyevka, Kleshcheyevka, Khromovo, Bogdanovka)

   • Continued Russian attacks near Andreyevka, northwest near Kleshcheyevka, from Khromovo, and in the Bogdanovka area. (Fig. 4)

Russia and China Hold Strategic Consulation

(U) On December 20 in Beijing, the 22nd round of strategic consultations between the Chinese and Russian armed forces took place. During this meeting, they extensively discussed the current international and regional security landscape, along with the relationship between their respective militaries and other relevant topics. Both parties agreed to act on the key agreements made by President Xi Jinping and President Putin, aiming to elevate the strategic cooperation between their militaries. This collaboration is intended to foster peace and stability both regionally and globally.

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Analyst Comment.