ALCON Intelligence Summary 19 Jan 24

In this summary: China Taiwan | Middle East | Ukraine

RR ALCON Intelligence Summary 19 JAN 2024

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 19 1500 L JAN 24

ICOD: 19 1200L JAN 24

CONTROLS: COMPARTMENT ALCON

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BLUF:

In the wake of Taiwan's presidential elections, heightened Chinese military activity near Taiwan has been observed, with a record number of Chinese warplanes and naval vessels detected, indicating increased regional tensions. Meanwhile, Iran, grappling with internal instability and extremist threats, has conducted preemptive strikes against terrorist groups along its border with Pakistan, urging Pakistani cooperation in security matters. In Ukraine, significant Russian military advancements are noted in several directions, including Kherson, Zaporozhye, and Donetsk, amidst strong Ukrainian resistance. This escalation has prompted international responses, particularly from France,

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INDO PACIFIC

China Taiwan Tensions

(U) Taiwan's defense ministry reported a significant increase in Chinese military activity near the island, with a record 24 Chinese warplanes and 5 naval vessels detected near Taiwan as of early Thursday. This follows five days after the Taiwanese presidential elections, in which pro-democracy, anti-China candidate William Lai won. The ministry noted 11 Chinese aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait's median line or entered Taiwan's ADIZ, a zone not internationally recognized but covers parts of mainland China.

Analyst Comment.

(U) This activity is part of an ongoing pattern, with 166 Chinese aircraft detected near Taiwan since the year's start, 33 of which crossed the median line or entered the ADIZ. The previous daily record was 103 Chinese planes on September 18. Taiwan emphasizes the importance of regional stability and vows to strengthen its self-defense capabilities.

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