ALCON Intelligence Summary 08 Jan 2024

Today we have updates on Indo Pacific tensions and the Middle East. Analyzing hundreds of sources for the most important open-source intelligence on global hotspots.

RR ALCON Intelligence Summary 08 JAN 24

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 2138L 20 DEC 23

ICOD: 2030L

CONTROLS: COMPARTMENT ALCON

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BLUF:

Indo Pacific Tensions

• Philippines-China Peaceful Resolution Efforts

• China's Sanctions on U.S.-Affiliated Companies

• Chinese Balloon Surveillance in Taiwanese Airspace

• Kim Jong-un's Inspection of North Korean Military Plant

• Potential Succession Indications in North Korea

Middle East Update

• Suspension of Israeli Hostage Negotiations

• Terrorist Attack Near Jerusalem

• Israeli Military Persistence in Gaza for Hostage Recovery

• Israeli Monitoring of Philadelphi Corridor

• WHO's Data Gap on Gaza Hospital Evacuations

• Islamic Resistance's Missile Launch Towards Haifa

• Israeli Strategy Shift to Offensive Operations in Lebanon

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Indo Pacific Tensions

(U)The Philippines' National Security Adviser, Eduardo Ano, stated that the country is open to diplomatic talks with China to peacefully resolve disputes in the South China Sea. This follows China's criticism of joint patrols by the United States and the Philippines in the region, which China deemed provocative and irresponsible. Ano emphasized that such joint patrols and potential future activities with allies reflect a commitment to a rules-based international order and regional peace and stability.

(U) Concurrently, China has sanctioned several companies, including BAE Systems Land and Armament, Alliant Techsystems Operation, AeroVironment, ViaSat, and Data Link Solutions, for violating the "one China" principle through U.S. arms transfers to Taiwan. These sanctions entail asset freezes and prohibit Chinese entities from conducting transactions or collaborations with these companies.

(U) Chinese Balloons Over Taiwan. On January 7, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense observed the flight of three more Chinese balloons. NFI.

(U) North Korea. Kim Jong-un, the General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Chairman of State Affairs of the DPRK, led an on-site visit at the main plant for the production of military launch vehicles. This visit was part of efforts to boost production, inspired by the Party Central Committee's December plenum ideas in 2023.

(U) He was joined by his daughter and senior party officials, including Cho Chun Ryong, Cho Yong Won, Ri Il Hwan, Kim Yo Jong, and officials from the General Bureau of Rocket Science. During the visit, Kim Jong-un reviewed the production progress and inspected various launch vehicles being produced at the plant.

(U) Analyst Comment. South Korean intelligence have assessed that Kim Jong-Un’s daughter is the likely successor to the head of the DPRK. Furthermore, analysis of seperate footage from the visit indicates a total of 8 Hwasongpo-18 launchers and 4 Hwasongpo-17 launchers. These are launchers for ICBMs.

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Middle East Update